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Bitcoin Macro Downtrend Breakout
Bitcoin has broken its Macro Downtrend which has typically been a historic event.
After all - BTC has only ever broken this Downtrend there times in the past and each time price enjoyed a new bull run over time.
This time will likely be no different.
However, as the prior cycles show - it will take time for a bull run to mature into the euphoric, overexuberant uptrend many so desire.
Nonetheless, BTC is technically well positioned for mid- to long-term upside.
However the question at this time is: does BTC need to pullback to retest the Macro Downtrend as new support to fully confirm the new macro uptrend?
A pullback would be a repeat of 2015 in that regard.
With the new Monthly Close fast approaching, it’s important to bear in mind the key levels worth watching should a deeper pullback and therefore that crucial retest occur:
The Macro Downtrend at this time represents the price point of ~$23600.
However, with April coming to a close, the Macro Downtrend will represent a new price point this coming May.
That price point is $22350.
This is due to the Macro Downtrend acting as a dynamic resistance and support.
What was nice about the Macro Downtrend when it acted as resistance was that the Macro Downtrend was obviously declining, which meant that it represented lower and lower prices, meaning that it was getting increasingly easier over time to muster a breakout beyond the Downtrend.
However, now that the Macro Downtrend has been broken as resistance and may act as new support in the future, because the Downtrend is declining, over time it will represent lower and lower prices and therefore BTC may have to dip deeper than we may have thought to perform that retest.
Therefore if a retest is to absolutely occur, then the longer that retest takes, the lower the price point of that retest will be.
If the retest occurs this month via a flash-crash, then the retest price point will be $23600.
And if the retest occurs next month, then BTC could then drop to $22350 in May.