Bitcoin After The Halving: An Update

The Bitcoin Halving Series - Part 2 of 4

Welcome the Rekt Capital newsletter, a place for people who want to better navigate the crypto markets with the help of cutting-edge crypto research and unbiased market analysis.

To celebrate this Christmas holiday season, I will be publishing a Four-Part Series on the Bitcoin Halving effect on Bitcoin’s price. Each Part will be released every Monday in the coming weeks leading up to Christmas and the New Year.

Released last week, Part 1 focuses on verifying Bitcoin’s key recurring price tendencies in the context of the Halving to deduce how these have played out since the third Halving.

Today’s newsletter edition is Part 2 of the series and is free for everybody to read.

I write research articles just like this one every Monday for subscribers of the Rekt Capital newsletter.

So if you’d like to receive cutting-edge research like this straight to your inbox, feel free to make the most of the early-bird discount of $5 a month and subscribe today:


Part 2

Part 2 is dedicated to updating the follow-up article I published in early July 2020 called “Bitcoin After The Halving - Everything You Need To Knowwhich focused specifically on the immediate weeks following each of Bitcoin’s Halvings.

In said article, I compared each of the Post-Halving periods with one another to deduce any recurring price tendencies that could inform the trend that had yet to emerge at the time.

At the time of publishing, it served as a valuable resource for investors in navigating the uncertain price action of Bitcoin at the time and proved to be perfect predictor of the price trend that emerged in the months that have since followed.

Bitcoin - Weeks After The Halving

In early July 2020, I published a follow-up article called “Bitcoin After The Halving - Everything You Need To Know because I wanted to better understand the sort of price action Bitcoin tends to make in the immediate weeks following the Halving.

In that article, I discussed three crucial price tendencies that Bitcoin tends to repeat each and every time, after each and every Halving.

These three principles were as follows:

  1. Post-Halving consolidation (i.e. Re-Accumulation) is normal price behaviour

  2. Post-Halving consolidation (i.e. Re-Accumulation) has preceded new uptrends

  3. Successful retest attempts of previous Range Highs have preceded new uptrends

Let’s illustrate these three tendencies in the context of Bitcoin’s post-Halving price charts to showcase how history indeed does repeat itself time and time again.

Post-Halving #1:

After the first Bitcoin Halving, Bitcoin formed a 6-week sideways channel.

This consolidation range was a range of Re-Accumulation which preceded a new uptrend:

But before the new uptrend took place, a retest attempt of the top of the Re-Accumulation range occurred:

Here are the key takeaways from Bitcoin’s price tendencies in the immediate weeks after Halving #1:

Key Takeaways: Post-Halving 1

  • Bitcoin formed a six-week Re-Accumulation Range after Halving 1

  • Upon breakout, price pulled back into the Range High for three Retest Attempts

  • These Successful Retest Attempts played a pivotal role in confirming the end of the Re-Accumulation period and the beginning of a new uptrend

Therefore, Bitcoin satisfied all three Principles after Halving #1:

  1. Post-Halving consolidation (i.e. Re-Accumulation) is normal price behaviour ✓

  2. Post-Halving consolidation (i.e. Re-Accumulation) has preceded new uptrends ✓

  3. Successful retest attempts of old Range Highs have preceded new uptrends ✓

Post-Halving #2:

In Post-Halving #2, Bitcoin formed two ranges.

One was of Accumulation at lows after a retrace.

The other was a Re-Accumulation range.

Not only did both ranges precede uptrends…

But successful retest attempts of the top of the ranges were crucial to fully confirming these new uptrends:

Here are the key takeaways from Bitcoin’s price tendencies in the immediate weeks after Halving #2:

Key Takeaways: Post-Halving 2

  • Bitcoin experienced four straight weeks of downside Post-Halving 2

  • A four-week Accumulation Range formed on the retrace

  • Upon breakout, price formed a five-week Re-Accumulation Range

  • The purpose of the Re-Accumulation Range was to successfully retest the Accumulation Range High as a new level of buy-side interest

  • Upon breakout, the Re-Accumulation Range High was successfully retested twice in the two weeks that following the breakout

  • Bitcoin consolidated for a total of eight weeks after Halving 2

Yet again, the three Principles were satisfied, this time after Halving #2:

  1. Post-Halving consolidation (i.e. Re-Accumulation) is normal price behaviour ✓

  2. Post-Halving consolidation (i.e. Re-Accumulation) has preceded new uptrends ✓

  3. Successful retest attempts of old Range Highs have preceded new uptrends ✓

Post-Halving #3:

Here is the Bitcoin price chart showcasing its Post-Halving price predicament in July 2020, when I first wrote the article:

This was at a time when many worried that this Post-Halving consolidation wasn’t going to be a Re-Accumulation range that would precede trend continuation.

Many instead thought that this range would be one of Distribution which would precede further downside.

Here’s an updated chart, showcasing perfect repetition of Bitcoin Post-Halving price tendencies:

The three post-Halving price tendencies in the immediate weeks after the Halving repeated perfectly once again:

  1. Post-Halving consolidation (i.e. Re-Accumulation) is normal price behaviour ✓

  2. Post-Halving consolidation (i.e. Re-Accumulation) has preceded new uptrends ✓

  3. Successful retest attempts of old Range Highs have preceded new uptrends ✓

Here’s a Bitcoin price chart to illustrate these crucial price principles:

After each and every Halving, Bitcoin performed the same sort of technical movement relative to its Post-Halving range.

And even though the Halving events take place every four years, Bitcoin’s price action tends to reliably replicate its historical price tendencies time and again.

When it comes to Bitcoin’s price action, history tends to repeat itself with astounding regularity.

Final Thoughts

Parts 1 and 2 of this Bitcoin Halving series have focused on examining how Bitcoin’s price action has repeatedly respected its historically recurring price tendencies in the context of its Halving events.

And the resounding conclusion is that Bitcoin tends to respect these historical price movements with amazing reliability.

This is an incredibly powerful insight to behold.

Because if history repeats itself again and again over time, then it’s reasonable to assume history could repeat itself going forward as well.

Which is why Parts 3 and 4 of this series will focus on the future.

That is - how could Bitcoin behave going forward while still respecting its key historically recurring price tendencies?

After all…

History repeats itself all too frequently to simply ignore it.

Feel free to Subscribe for Parts 3 and 4 of the Bitcoin Halving series - coming out every Monday over the course of the coming weeks leading up to Christmas and the New Year:


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