Bitcoin - My Perspective
New Monthly Close, Short-term structures, & Four Year Cycles
Welcome to the Rekt Capital newsletter, a place for people who want to better navigate the crypto markets with the help of cutting-edge crypto research and unbiased market analysis.
Bitcoin Macro Downtrend Update
A new month - a new data point when it comes to the Bitcoin Macro Downtrend:
Bitcoin has printed a new Monthly Candle beyond the Macro Downtrend.
Technically, BTC is enjoying a new macro uptrend, albeit not a fully confirmed one.
Because a fully confirmed uptrend would occur in the form of a Monthly Close beyond the Macro Downtrend followed by a successful retest of the Macro Downtrend as new support.
The 2015 breakout is a shining example of a fully confirmed technical breakout.
But the 2019 breakout is a shining example of how textbook principles aren’t always mimicked in a reality.
So BTC is in a macro uptrend - but will price give us one more deep retrace to fully confirm the uptrend?
Given how the Macro Downtrend has adjusted with this now new month of May, should such a 2015-like retest/retrace occur, price would drop to the $22400 level:
And if price continues to hold the highs throughout May and postpone the potential retest until June, then in June the Macro Downtrend would delineate the price point of $21100:
So of course, for most investors who don’t want to see low BTC prices - the sooner this retest occurs, the better for them.
But for bargain buyers, who like to dollar-cost average at low BTC prices - the more postponed this retrace, the better for them, as a postponed retest over time will mean that the retest-price-point will be lower.
But as time passes, the following question will start to appear: how long can BTC maintain the highs until the retest option is suddenly void?
That is, if price maintains the highs for too long, at which point do we have to come to terms with the retesting scenario actually not occurring in the end?
For now, this is a rhetorical question that doesn’t need answering just yet.